Category: Cme - Ascension Now

BIG X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE:

9/10/2024

Sunspot AR3848 was directly facing Earth this morning, Oct. 8th (0156 UTC), when it unleashed a powerful X1.8-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

This explosions lasted more than 4 hours, so long that it lifted a massive CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Take a look at these preliminary coronagraph images from NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft. This CME will certainly hit Earth later this week, potentially sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms. Stay tuned for a refined forecast.
https://spaceweather.com/

TWO CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH:

4/10/2024

Confirmed: Two CMEs are now heading for Earth following consecutive X-flares (X7.1 and X9.1) from active sunspot AR3842. According to NOAA and NASA models, the first will strike Earth on Oct 4th and the second (more potent) will strike on Oct. 6th. The dual impacts could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid-latitudes, especially on Oct. 6th.
https://spaceweather.com/

THE STRONGEST FLARE YET (UPDATED AGAIN):

4/10/2024

Sunspot AR3842 exploded again on Oct. 3rd, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the X9.1-category blast:

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as a half an hour after 12:18 UTC.
The explosion also produced a halo CME. Now that a full set of images has arrived from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it's clear that the CME is potent. NOAA forecasts of a strong geomagnetic storm when it arrives on Oct. 6th are probably correct.
https://spaceweather.com/

SIGNIFICANT X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE:

2/10/2024

Fast-growing sunspot AR3842 erupted on Oct 1st (2220 UT), producing the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. The X7.1-category blast caused a shortwave radio blackout over Hawaii and hurled a CME into space. A preliminary NASA model predicts it will hit Earth on Oct. 5th. Stay tuned for the geomagnetic storm forecast.

Above: An X7.1-class solar flare on Oct. 1, 2024. Credit: NASA/SDO
https://spaceweather.com/

SIGNIFICANT X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE:

14/9/2024

New sunspot AR3825 erupted again today, producing a very strong X4.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Click to view a movie of the flare

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, resulting in a deep shortwave radio blackout over South America and the mid-Atlantic Ocean: map. Ham radio operators and mariners may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as 30 minutes after the flare's peak (1529 UTC).

A CME is emerging from the blast site, but it is too soon to say whether it has an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned for updates. Solar flare alerts: SMS Tex t

more images: from Warren Spreng of Mason, Ohio
https://spaceweather.com/

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT:

9/8/2024

Active sunspot AR3777 just produced its most powerful solar flare yet--an X1.3-class explosion on Aug. 8th (1935 UT). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio blackout from North America to the Hawaiian islands. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.
Of greater interest is a possible CME. The US Air Force is reporting a strong Type II radio burst. This type of natural radio emission comes from shock waves at the leading edge of a fast CME. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Stay tuned.
https://spaceweather.com/

ANOTHER X-FLARE:

29/5/2024

Old sunspot AR3664 (now AR3697) isn't as big as it used to be, but it is still very active. Today at 1437 UT, it produced an X1.4-class solar flare:

Note: The jiggling of the sun in this movie is not caused by the X-flare.
Calibration offsets were underway during the flare. Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory.

A lengthy pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation produced a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for 60 to 90 minutes following the onset of the flare.
This explosion was remarkable for its duration. The X-class phase alone lasted more than an hour--plenty of time to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have detected a bright CME emerging from the blast site: movie. We will find out in the hours ahead whether or not the storm cloud has an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned!
https://spaceweather.com/

STRONGEST SOLAR FLARE OF THE CURRENT CYCLE:

15/5/2024

Sunspot AR3664 just unleashed the strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle--an X8.7-category blast from beyond the sun's western limb. X marks the spot in this image of the flare from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

Because the sunspot is behind the edge of the solar disk, the flare was partially eclipsed. It was probably even stronger than it appeared. "X8.7" is almost certainly an underestimate of the flare's true strength.
Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Ham radio operators, aviators and mariners may have noticed a sudden loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz.
Subatomic debris from this event might soon reach Earth, guided toward our planet by the Parker Spiral. Also, a CME might be in the offing. Stay tuned for updates!
https://spaceweather.com/

AURORAS IN STRANGE PLACES:

13/5/2024

The historic geomagnetic storm of May 10-11, 2024, produced auroras across Europe, Asia, Mexico, and all 50 US stetes--even Hawaii. Hundreds of millions of people saw the colored lights for the first time in their lives, with photographers catching shots they couldn't have previously imagined. For instance, here is Opuntia chlorotica surrounded by the red glow of a CME:

Kyle Nulla Cognomen sends this picture from Las Vegas, Nevada. "What a gorgeous view of the desert sky illuminated by aurora," he says. "I could see the reds and greens with my naked eye!"
Our photo gallery is filled with unusual images like this one--auroras in strange places, illuminating cactii, palm trees, pyramids, and Carribean beaches. There's no way to pick a favorite. Or is there? Browse the gallery to explore the extraordinary global display.
https://spaceweather.com/

THE BIG STORM IS OVER: A PARTING SHOT FROM AR3664:

13/5/2024

NOAA forecasters say that the storm is really over now. There's no chance of additional G5 activity this week because all the big CMEs have already come and gone. However, relatively minor G1 or G2-class storms are possible on May 13th in response to a glancing blow from this off-target CME.

This morning, May 13th, giant sunspot AR3664 issued a parting shot from the edge of the Earth strike zone. An M6-class flare at 0944 UT hurled an impressive CME into space:

Unlike most of the sunspot's previous CMEs, this one is not going to hit Earth with bullseye precision. Instead, it is expected to deliver a glancing blow on May 15th or 16th. The impact could spark minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms.
https://spaceweather.com/

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM--NOW!

10/5/2024

The first of six CMEs hurled toward Earth by giant sunspot AR3664 hit our planet's magnetic field today. The impact on May 10th at 1645 UT jolted magnetometers around the world and sparked a severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storm. This storm is underway now. More CMEs are following close behind and their arrival could extend the storm into the weekend. Sign up for Space Weather Alerts to receive instant text messages when the CMEs arrive.
The ongoing storm is producing low-latitude auroras in the southern hemisphere. Ken James sends this picture from the Snake Valley Observatory in Victoria, Australia:

"The red, yellow and green colours were easily visible to my naked eye," says James.
Readers in the USA should note that the southern latitude of Victoria, Australia, 37 degrees, is the same as the northern latitude of central California. That's how far down auroras could be seen if it were dark instead of daylight in North America.
Why is this storm so severe? Take a look at the solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft:

After the CME struck, the speed of the solar wind blowing around our planet abruptly increased to more than 700 km/s. More importantly, south-pointing magnetic fields from the sun washed over the Earth, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured through the gap to turbo-charge the storm.
https://spaceweather.com/

ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT?

10/5/2024

No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras!

FIVE CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH:

10/5/2024

Great sunspot AR3664 has hurled an astonishing five CMEs toward Earth. They're all in this frenetic 2-day coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):

The two bright objects are Jupiter (left) and Venus (right). The CMEs will miss those planets and hit Earth instead.
According to a NOAA forecast model, the first three CMEs could merge for form a "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake and gobble up slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do an good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field.
The Cannibal CME is expected to arrive on May 11th. It alone could spark a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm. With two more CMEs following close behind, storm levels could become extreme (G4), sparking auroras at mid- to low-latitudes across Europe and the USA.
https://spaceweather.com/

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE ON 9 FEBRUARY 2024

10/2/2024

Yesterday (9 February) at 13.14 UT, the sun produced one of the most powerful solar flares in years, an X3.4-class explosion from just behind the sun's southwestern limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

The source of the flare appears to be departing sunspot AR3575. Because the blast site was eclipsed by the edge of the sun, the flare was probably even stronger than its X3.4 classification suggests. This was a big explosion.
Hours after the flare's peak, Earth was still feeling the effects of the blast. Solar protons energized by the flare are following curved magnetic field lines from the sunspot back to our planet. The resulting hailstorm, called a "radiation storm," is still intensifying at the time of this writing (9 February) and has just reached category S2:

This plot shows what NOAA's GOES-18 satellite is seeing right now. The colored lines count the number of energetic protons streaming past the satellite en route to Earth. Green and blue are of special interest because they trace "hard protons" capable of upsetting spacecraft electronics, e.g., causing reboots of onboard computers and temporarily fogging cameras.
The explosion also hurled a bright CME into space. It will not hit Earth. Instead, a NASA model of the CME shows it is heading for Mercury, Venus and Mars. It will hit all three planets this weekend.

10 February 2024:
For the second day in a row, energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. This is called a "solar radiation storm," and it is currently a category S2 event. A data-plot from NOAA's GOES-18 satellite shows how protons surged around our planet just after yesterday's X-class solar flare:

The colored lines count the number of energetic protons streaming past GOES-18 en route to Earth. Green and blue are of special interest because they trace "hard protons" capable of upsetting spacecraft electronics, e.g., causing reboots of onboard computers. These particles can even reach all the way down to aviation altitudes, boosting dose rates for passengers and crews flying commercial planes over Earth's polar regions.
We can actually *see* some of these protons. Take a look at this SOHO coronagraph movie of the sun hours after the flare:

The "snow" in this movie is caused by the radiation storm. Each speckle is a solar proton striking the spacecraft's digital camera. This is a good example of how radiation storms can temporarily interfere with orbital imaging systems.

Another effect of the radiation storm is an ongoing blackout of shortwave radio transmissions around Earth's poles. This is called a "polar cap absorption event". Earth's magnetic field is guiding many of the incoming protons towards the poles, where they ionize the upper atmosphere; this, in turn, wipes out radio signals below 30 MHz. Many shortwave radios inside the Arctic Circle simply won't work until the radiation storm is over.
https://spaceweather.com

WHAT HAPPENS DURING A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM?

30/11/2023

NOAA models confirm that a Cannibal CME will strike our planet on Dec. 1st. Cannibal CMEs form when a fast CME sweeps up a slower CME ahead of it. The combination contains intense, tangled magnetic fields that can do a good job sparking auroras when they reach Earth. If a Cannibal CME strikes Earth on Dec. 1st, as predicted, geomagnetic storm levels could reach category G3 (Strong). If so, here's what we can expect. The last G3-class storm on Nov. 5th sparked not only bright auroras, but also deep-red SAR arcs around the world. Greg Redfern photographed this example from the Shenandoah National Park in Virginia:

"I didn't realize I had photographed an SAR arc until I processed my images the next day, stitching two of them together to reveal its shape," says Redfern.
SAR arcs look like auroras, but they are not. They are the glow of heat energy leaking into the upper atmosphere from Earth's ring current system–a donut-shaped circuit carrying millions of amps around our planet. During the Nov. 5th geomagnetic storm, these red arcs were observed as far south as Texas and California.
Auroras were observed as well -- "and they were INSANE," says Janne Maj Nagelsen, who watched the display from Stamnes, Vaksdal, Norway:

"I have never seen such strong auroras," says Nagelsen. "Not to mention the colors. I mean look at the picture! They were totally, literally insane."

Auroras are caused by charged particles raining from space down upon Earth's atmosphere. Unlike SAR arcs, which are pure red, auroras can have a rich and stunning variety of colors. Both phenomena may be photographed on Dec. 1, 2023, when a Cannibal CME is expected to hit Earth.
https://spaceweather.com/