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Sunspot 4274 erupted again yesterday, producing a powerful X4-class solar flare. Unlike previous explosions, this one was not directly facing Earth. Most of the CME will miss our planet. Even so, a glancing blow is possible on Nov. 16th. NOAA forecasters have issued a G1-class geomagnetic storm watch for Nov. 16th and 17th.
https://spaceweather.com/
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As the solstice sun hangs high in the skies of the northern hemisphere, our planet is getting hit by solar flares. In the past week there have been two X-class, one near-X, and dozens of lesser flares:  Each of the spikes in the graph above represents a pulse of X-radiation hitting Earth's upper atmosphere, ionizing the air at the edge of space. This has caused a rolling series of shortwave radio communication blackouts around our planet. The deepest blackouts occurred on June 15th (North America), June 17th (Hawaii) and June 19-20th (Hawaii). During those events, ham radio operators would have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 25 MHz.
As northern summer begins, the flares are set to continue. Their source is unstable sunspot 4114, which will remain on the Earthside of the sun for a few more days before it disappears over the sun's western limb. Dates of special interest include June 23-24, when the sunspot will be magnetically connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. Any flares around that time will accelerate energetic protons directly toward our planet and could spark a solar radiation storm. https://spaceweather.com/ Big old sunspot 4100 finally exploded--and it was a doozy. On May 31st at 00:05 UTC, Earth-orbiting satellites detected an M8.2-class solar flare. The explosion lasted more than 3 hours:  A long-duration M8.2-class solar flare recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory Although the flare was not technically X-class, it was close. Moreover, it was a slow explosion with lots of power "under the curve." The blast was able to lift a massive CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Indeed, shortly after the flare, SOHO coronagraphs recorded a bright halo CME heading directly for our planet:  This is a very fast-moving CME. Type II radio emissions from shock waves within the cloud suggest it is traveling 1,938 km/s or 4.3 million mph. When it strikes Earth, the CME could spark severe geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid- to low latitudes. Stay tuned!
https://spaceweather.com/ Yesterday, the sun surprised forecasters with a dramatic X1.1-class solar flare (March 28th @ 1520 UTC). The explosion caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Americas, and it hurled a massive CME into space. That CME will narrowly miss Earth. The sunspot that caused the flare (AR4046) is now turning toward Earth, so future explosions may be more effective.
https://spaceweather.com/ Surprising forecasters, today the sun produced a dramatic X1.1-class solar flare (March 28th @ 1520 UTC) with a shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed massive plumes of plasma emerging from the blast site:  The source of the flare is a new sunspot emerging over the sun's eastern limb. This sunspot will turn toward Earth in the days ahead, putting our planet in the crosshairs of future eruptions. Stay tuned!
https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3947 is sizzling with activity. Since Friday it has produced three X-class solar flares and multiple strong M-flares. NOAA's GOES-16 satellite recorded the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray flashes:  Each flare has produced a shortwave radio blackout on Earth. Almost all longitudes of our planet have experienced intermittent loss of signal below 20 MHz during local daylight hours. Because of these flares, long-distance propagation has been unreliable.
Remarkably, no significant CMEs have emerged. These explosions have not lifted much material out of the sun's atmosphere. Future blasts may behave differently, however, and the activity shows no sign of abating as the sunspot turns toward Earth. Stay tuned! https://spaceweather.com/ The sun is crackling with solar flares. In the last 48 hours alone it has produced an X-flare, a double X-flare (pictured below), and more than a dozen M-class solar flares:  Repeated pulses of extreme ultraviolet radiation have ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, creating a series of shortwave radio blackouts rolling around all longitudes of our planet. Global ham radio transmissions below 20 MHz have not been very reliable for the last two days.
More flares are in the offing. There are currently five sunspots on the solar disk with mixed-polarity magnetic fields capable of producing M-to-X-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of additional X-flares on Dec. 31st. https://spaceweather.com/ Big sunspot 3932 erupted on Dec. 23rd, producing an M8.9-class solar flare, only percentage points from category X. NOAA's GOES-16 satellite recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:  The flare produced a brief shortwave radio blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic Ocean. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal below 20 MHz between 1112 UTC and 1127 UTC.
Of greater interest is the coronal mass ejection (CME). SOHO coronagraphs recorded a fast CME emerging from the blast site. The bulk of the CME will miss Earth to the south, however, there is still a significant Earth-directed component. NOAA and NASA forecast models predict it will arrive on Dec. 25th, potentially sparking a G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storm. https://spaceweather.com/ "Today we have three big things on the sun: A gigantic string of big and active sunspots, a large sunspot just coming into view, and a magnificent solar prominence," reports Maximilian-Vlad Teodorescu of the Institute of Space Science in Magurele, Romania. He photographed them all on Oct. 29th:  "All are far above the usual size of sunspots and prominences," says Teodorescu. "What a wonderful solar maximum!"
Three of the sunspots Teodorescu photographed pose a threat for very strong solar flares: 3869, 3872, 3874 have 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic fields in which opposite polarities are bumping together in dangerous proximity. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 30% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3848 was directly facing Earth this morning, Oct. 8th (0156 UTC), when it unleashed a powerful X1.8-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:  This explosions lasted more than 4 hours, so long that it lifted a massive CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Take a look at these preliminary coronagraph images from NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft. This CME will certainly hit Earth later this week, potentially sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms. Stay tuned for a refined forecast.
https://spaceweather.com/ Confirmed: Two CMEs are now heading for Earth following consecutive X-flares (X7.1 and X9.1) from active sunspot AR3842. According to NOAA and NASA models, the first will strike Earth on Oct 4th and the second (more potent) will strike on Oct. 6th. The dual impacts could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid-latitudes, especially on Oct. 6th.
https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3842 exploded again on Oct. 3rd, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the X9.1-category blast:  Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as a half an hour after 12:18 UTC.
The explosion also produced a halo CME. Now that a full set of images has arrived from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it's clear that the CME is potent. NOAA forecasts of a strong geomagnetic storm when it arrives on Oct. 6th are probably correct. https://spaceweather.com/ Fast-growing sunspot AR3842 erupted on Oct 1st (2220 UT), producing the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. The X7.1-category blast caused a shortwave radio blackout over Hawaii and hurled a CME into space. A preliminary NASA model predicts it will hit Earth on Oct. 5th. Stay tuned for the geomagnetic storm forecast.  The quiet has ended. Earlier today, sunspot AR3842 produced an M7.6-class solar flare (movie) and a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. AR3842 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for even stronger X-class flares.
https://spaceweather.com/ New sunspot AR3825 erupted again today, producing a very strong X4.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:  Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, resulting in a deep shortwave radio blackout over South America and the mid-Atlantic Ocean: map. Ham radio operators and mariners may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as 30 minutes after the flare's peak (1529 UTC).
A CME is emerging from the blast site, but it is too soon to say whether it has an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned for updates. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text more images: from Warren Spreng of Mason, Ohio https://spaceweather.com/ |
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