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A CME is heading straight for Earth--see below. NASA and NOAA models agree that it will strike Earth on June 1st. The impact could spark a severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storm with auroras visible across Europe and many US states. This won't be as big as the famous May 2024 storm, but it could be one of the bigger events of Solar Cycle 25 if a severe storm materializes.
https://spaceweather.com/
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PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: Yesterday's X1.2-class solar flare accelerated a fusillade of energetic protons toward Earth, and they are now raining down on the upper atmosphere. For a while on May 13th, the downpour was intense enough to trigger an S1-class radiation storm warning, but today the proton rain is subsiding. Current radiation levels pose no threat to astronauts or air travelers. Radiation storm alerts: SMS Text STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: After weeks of calm, solar activity is suddenly high again, with two strong solar flares erupting from opposite sides of the sun:  The first of these flares (X1.2) caused a brief shortwave blackout over the Americas and hurled a CME into space. A NASA model shows the CME hitting Mercury, grazing Venus, and completely missing Earth later this week.
The second flare (M5.3) caused a longer shortwave radio blackout over southeast Asia and probably hurled a CME into space. If so, it could have an Earth-directed component. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text https://spaceweather.com/ It never made sense. On Feb. 3rd, 2022, SpaceX launched a batch of 49 Starlinks to low-Earth orbit--something they had done many times before. This time was different, though. Almost immediately, dozens of the new satellites began to fall out of the sky.  Above: A Starlink satellite falls from the sky over Puerto Rico on Feb. 7, 2022. [video] At the time, SpaceX offered this explanation: "Unfortunately, the satellites deployed on Thursday (Feb. 3rd) were significantly impacted by a geomagnetic storm on Friday, (Feb. 4th)." A more accurate statement might have read "...impacted by a very minor geomagnetic storm." The satellites flew into a storm that barely registered on NOAA scales: It was a G1, the weakest possible, unlikely to cause a mass decay of satellites. Something about "The Starlink Incident" was not adding up. Space scientists Scott McIntosh and Robert Leamon of Lynker Space, Inc., have a new and different idea: "The Terminator did it," says McIntosh. Not to be confused with the killer robot, McIntosh's Terminator is an event on the sun that helps explain the mysterious progression of solar cycles. Four centuries after Galileo discovered sunspots, researchers still cannot accurately predict the timing and strength of the sun's 11-year solar cycle. Even "11 years" isn't real; observed cycles vary from less than 9 years to more than 14 years long.  Above: Oppositely charged bands of magnetism march toward the sun's equator where they "terminate" one another, kickstarting the next solar cycle. [more] McIntosh and Leamon realized that forecasters had been overlooking something. There is a moment that happens every 11 years or so when opposing magnetic fields from the sun's previous and upcoming solar cycles collide and cancel (see the animation, above). They called this moment, which signals the death of the old cycle, "The Termination Event." After a Termination Event, the sun roars to life–"like a hot stove where someone suddenly turns the burner on," McIntosh likes to say. Solar ultraviolet radiation abruptly jumps to a higher level, heating the upper atmosphere and dramatically increasing aerodynamic drag on satellites. This plot supports what McIntosh and Leamon are saying:  The histogram shows the number of objects falling out of Earth orbit each year since 1975. Vertical dashed lines mark Termination Events. There's an uptick in satellite decay around the time of every Terminator, none bigger than 2022.
As SpaceX was assembling the doomed Starlinks of Group 4-7 in early 2022, they had no idea that the Terminator Event had, in fact, just happened. Unwittingly, they launched the satellites into a radically altered near-space environment. "Some of our satellite partners said it was just pea soup up there," says Leamon. SpaceX wasn't the only company hit hard. Capella Space also struggled in 2022 to keep its constellation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites in orbit. “The atmospheric density in low Earth orbit was 2 to 3 times more than expected,” wrote Capella Space's Scott Shambaugh in a paper entitled Doing Battle With the Sun. “This increase in drag threatened to prematurely de-orbit some of our spacecraft." Indeed, many did deorbit earlier than their 3-year design lifetimes. The Terminator did it? It makes more sense than a minor storm. Surprising forecasters, today the sun produced a dramatic X1.1-class solar flare (March 28th @ 1520 UTC) with a shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed massive plumes of plasma emerging from the blast site:  The source of the flare is a new sunspot emerging over the sun's eastern limb. This sunspot will turn toward Earth in the days ahead, putting our planet in the crosshairs of future eruptions. Stay tuned!
https://spaceweather.com/ An S1-class solar radiation storm is in progress on Jan. 5th. This means energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. Their ionizing effect on the atmosphere is causing a polar cap absorption event (PCA). Shortwave radios inside the Arctic and Antarctic Circles won't work as well as usual until the PCA subsides.
https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3947 is sizzling with activity. Since Friday it has produced three X-class solar flares and multiple strong M-flares. NOAA's GOES-16 satellite recorded the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray flashes:  Each flare has produced a shortwave radio blackout on Earth. Almost all longitudes of our planet have experienced intermittent loss of signal below 20 MHz during local daylight hours. Because of these flares, long-distance propagation has been unreliable.
Remarkably, no significant CMEs have emerged. These explosions have not lifted much material out of the sun's atmosphere. Future blasts may behave differently, however, and the activity shows no sign of abating as the sunspot turns toward Earth. Stay tuned! https://spaceweather.com/ "Today we have three big things on the sun: A gigantic string of big and active sunspots, a large sunspot just coming into view, and a magnificent solar prominence," reports Maximilian-Vlad Teodorescu of the Institute of Space Science in Magurele, Romania. He photographed them all on Oct. 29th:  "All are far above the usual size of sunspots and prominences," says Teodorescu. "What a wonderful solar maximum!"
Three of the sunspots Teodorescu photographed pose a threat for very strong solar flares: 3869, 3872, 3874 have 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic fields in which opposite polarities are bumping together in dangerous proximity. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 30% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. https://spaceweather.com/ For the 3rd day in a row, energetic protons are raining down on Earth. It's an S2-class radiation storm. The protons were accelerated by X-class solar flares on Oct. 24th and 26th. As a result of the storm, a shortwave radio blackout is underway inside the Arctic Circle, and cameras on spacecraft are being fogged. Indeed, most of the speckles in the SOHO coronagraph movie highlighted below are solar protons hitting the camera. This could continue for at least another 24 hours.
https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3842 exploded again on Oct. 3rd, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the X9.1-category blast:  Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as a half an hour after 12:18 UTC.
The explosion also produced a halo CME. Now that a full set of images has arrived from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it's clear that the CME is potent. NOAA forecasts of a strong geomagnetic storm when it arrives on Oct. 6th are probably correct. https://spaceweather.com/ Fast-growing sunspot AR3842 erupted on Oct 1st (2220 UT), producing the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. The X7.1-category blast caused a shortwave radio blackout over Hawaii and hurled a CME into space. A preliminary NASA model predicts it will hit Earth on Oct. 5th. Stay tuned for the geomagnetic storm forecast.  Imagine a waterfall made of hot plasma falling from a precipice tall enough to swallow Earth five times. Here it is:  Dutch photographer "Neo" captured this movie on August 28th. "For three days I've been watching these prominences around the edge of the active sun," he says. "The plasma did not stop falling for a moment."
Plasma falls have been seen on the sun many times before, yet researchers still don't fully understand them. One big mystery is how fast they fall. The sun's gravity is powerful, but not powerful enough to pull the plasma down so quickly through the thicket of solar magnetic fields. Nuclear engineers would like to figure out how this happens, because it also happens on a smaller scale in fusion reactors, frustrating their efforts to sustain an energy-producing reaction. Studies of plasma falls on the sun could lead to practical breakthroughs here on Earth. https://spaceweather.com/ Old sunspot AR3664 (now AR3697) isn't as big as it used to be, but it is still very active. Today at 1437 UT, it produced an X1.4-class solar flare:  Note: The jiggling of the sun in this movie is not caused by the X-flare. Calibration offsets were underway during the flare. Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory. A lengthy pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation produced a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for 60 to 90 minutes following the onset of the flare.
This explosion was remarkable for its duration. The X-class phase alone lasted more than an hour--plenty of time to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have detected a bright CME emerging from the blast site: movie. We will find out in the hours ahead whether or not the storm cloud has an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned! https://spaceweather.com/ A new source of solar flares is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. On May 15th (1438 UT), it emitted a dramatic X3-class explosion, shown here in a movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:  Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. Ham radio operators, aviators and mariners may have noticed a sudden loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz.
The source of this flare will rotate over the sun's limb this week, making future explosions more squarely Earth-directed and potentially hurling CMEs in our direction. Stay tuned! https://spaceweather.com/ Giant sunspot AR3664 is no longer facing Earth. That makes it extra dangerous. Right now, the Carrington-class sunspot is passing over the sun's western limb--a region of the sun that is magnetically connected to our planet. Indeed, we are feeling the effects of that connection; take a look at this map of ongoing radio blackouts:  Red zones in the map show where shortwave radio signals are being absorbed. Frequencies below 20 MHz are almost completely blacked out, a nuisance for long-distance aviators and ham radio operators.
What's causing this? Protons accelerated by solar flares in the magnetic canopy of AR3664 are following the Parker Spiral back to Earth. Think of it as a magnetic superhighway. Arriving particles are funneled by our planet's magnetic field toward the poles where they ionize the atmosphere and interfere with the transmission of shortwave radio signals. This polar cap absorption event could last for days, especially if it is boosted by more flares from AR3664. You can can monitor its progress here. https://spaceweather.com/ Giant sunspot AR3664 unleashed another X-flare today (May 11th @ 0139 UT)--its strongest yet. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured a bright ultravolet flash from the category X5.8 explosion:  Radiation from the flare caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. Ham radio operators and mariners may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare's peak.
We don't yet know if this flare hurled a CME into space. If it did, it could have a grazing Earth-directed component. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. https://spaceweather.com/ |
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