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An S1-class solar radiation storm is in progress on Jan. 5th. This means energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. Their ionizing effect on the atmosphere is causing a polar cap absorption event (PCA). Shortwave radios inside the Arctic and Antarctic Circles won't work as well as usual until the PCA subsides.
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Sunspot AR3947 is sizzling with activity. Since Friday it has produced three X-class solar flares and multiple strong M-flares. NOAA's GOES-16 satellite recorded the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray flashes:  Each flare has produced a shortwave radio blackout on Earth. Almost all longitudes of our planet have experienced intermittent loss of signal below 20 MHz during local daylight hours. Because of these flares, long-distance propagation has been unreliable.
Remarkably, no significant CMEs have emerged. These explosions have not lifted much material out of the sun's atmosphere. Future blasts may behave differently, however, and the activity shows no sign of abating as the sunspot turns toward Earth. Stay tuned! https://spaceweather.com/ The first of two CMEs heading toward Earth has just arrived. It passed NOAA's DSCOVR at 1600 UTC and reached our planet about 40 minutes later. The impact could spark minor (G1) to strong (G3) geomagnetic storms in the hours ahead. If a strong storm materializes, Northern Lights could descend to mid-latitudes in the USA and Europe, competing with fireworks displays to start the New Year.
https://spaceweather.com/ The sun is crackling with solar flares. In the last 48 hours alone it has produced an X-flare, a double X-flare (pictured below), and more than a dozen M-class solar flares:  Repeated pulses of extreme ultraviolet radiation have ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, creating a series of shortwave radio blackouts rolling around all longitudes of our planet. Global ham radio transmissions below 20 MHz have not been very reliable for the last two days.
More flares are in the offing. There are currently five sunspots on the solar disk with mixed-polarity magnetic fields capable of producing M-to-X-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of additional X-flares on Dec. 31st. https://spaceweather.com/ Two CMEs are expected to strike Earth during the next 48 hours--a minor glancing blow on Dec. 24th followed by a more direct hit on Dec. 25th. The one-two punch could cause a G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras for Christmas.
https://spaceweather.com/ Big sunspot 3932 erupted on Dec. 23rd, producing an M8.9-class solar flare, only percentage points from category X. NOAA's GOES-16 satellite recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:  The flare produced a brief shortwave radio blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic Ocean. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal below 20 MHz between 1112 UTC and 1127 UTC.
Of greater interest is the coronal mass ejection (CME). SOHO coronagraphs recorded a fast CME emerging from the blast site. The bulk of the CME will miss Earth to the south, however, there is still a significant Earth-directed component. NOAA and NASA forecast models predict it will arrive on Dec. 25th, potentially sparking a G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storm. https://spaceweather.com/ Earth is entering a stream of debris from rock comet 3200 Phaethon, source of the annual Geminid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak on Friday night, Dec. 13th, with a dozen or so meteors per hour visible in bright moonlight. The best time to look is 2 a.m. local time (Saturday morning) when the constellation Gemini is high in the sky. [more]
https://spaceweather.com/ For the 3rd day in a row, energetic protons are raining down on Earth. It's an S2-class radiation storm. The protons were accelerated by X-class solar flares on Oct. 24th and 26th. As a result of the storm, a shortwave radio blackout is underway inside the Arctic Circle, and cameras on spacecraft are being fogged. Indeed, most of the speckles in the SOHO coronagraph movie highlighted below are solar protons hitting the camera. This could continue for at least another 24 hours.
https://spaceweather.com/ In a joint statement on Oct. 15th, NASA and NOAA announced that Solar Maximum is underway. If you saw last week's geomagnetic storm, you probably reached the same conclusion. Good news: Solar Max is not a narrow moment in time; it is a lengthy phase of solar activity that can last for 2 or 3 years. More aurora outbursts are likely in 2024 and 2025. Listen to the press conference here.
https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3848 was directly facing Earth this morning, Oct. 8th (0156 UTC), when it unleashed a powerful X1.8-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:  This explosions lasted more than 4 hours, so long that it lifted a massive CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Take a look at these preliminary coronagraph images from NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft. This CME will certainly hit Earth later this week, potentially sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms. Stay tuned for a refined forecast.
https://spaceweather.com/ Confirmed: Two CMEs are now heading for Earth following consecutive X-flares (X7.1 and X9.1) from active sunspot AR3842. According to NOAA and NASA models, the first will strike Earth on Oct 4th and the second (more potent) will strike on Oct. 6th. The dual impacts could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid-latitudes, especially on Oct. 6th.
https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3842 exploded again on Oct. 3rd, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the X9.1-category blast:  Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as a half an hour after 12:18 UTC.
The explosion also produced a halo CME. Now that a full set of images has arrived from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it's clear that the CME is potent. NOAA forecasts of a strong geomagnetic storm when it arrives on Oct. 6th are probably correct. https://spaceweather.com/ Fast-growing sunspot AR3842 erupted on Oct 1st (2220 UT), producing the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. The X7.1-category blast caused a shortwave radio blackout over Hawaii and hurled a CME into space. A preliminary NASA model predicts it will hit Earth on Oct. 5th. Stay tuned for the geomagnetic storm forecast.  The Moon is about to pass directly in front of the sun, producing a 'ring of fire' solar eclipse. The path of annularity passes almost entirely over remote parts of the Pacific Ocean:  Above: Eclipse visibility map created by Spaceweather.com reader Peter Zimnikoval Land masses where people can see the ring of fire include Easter Island and the southern tips of Argentina and Chile. Only ~175,000 people live in the path of annularity.
Annular eclipses occur when the Moon is a little too small to cover the entire sun. All around the circumference of the Moon, the sun peeks out from behind lunar craters and mountain ranges, producing the ring-of-fire effect. https://spaceweather.com/ The quiet has ended. Earlier today, sunspot AR3842 produced an M7.6-class solar flare (movie) and a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. AR3842 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for even stronger X-class flares.
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