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The first of two CMEs heading toward Earth has just arrived. It passed NOAA's DSCOVR at 1600 UTC and reached our planet about 40 minutes later. The impact could spark minor (G1) to strong (G3) geomagnetic storms in the hours ahead. If a strong storm materializes, Northern Lights could descend to mid-latitudes in the USA and Europe, competing with fireworks displays to start the New Year.
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Two CMEs are expected to strike Earth during the next 48 hours--a minor glancing blow on Dec. 24th followed by a more direct hit on Dec. 25th. The one-two punch could cause a G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storm with high-latitude auroras for Christmas.
https://spaceweather.com/ In a joint statement on Oct. 15th, NASA and NOAA announced that Solar Maximum is underway. If you saw last week's geomagnetic storm, you probably reached the same conclusion. Good news: Solar Max is not a narrow moment in time; it is a lengthy phase of solar activity that can last for 2 or 3 years. More aurora outbursts are likely in 2024 and 2025. Listen to the press conference here.
https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3848 was directly facing Earth this morning, Oct. 8th (0156 UTC), when it unleashed a powerful X1.8-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash: This explosions lasted more than 4 hours, so long that it lifted a massive CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Take a look at these preliminary coronagraph images from NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft. This CME will certainly hit Earth later this week, potentially sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms. Stay tuned for a refined forecast.
https://spaceweather.com/ Confirmed: Two CMEs are now heading for Earth following consecutive X-flares (X7.1 and X9.1) from active sunspot AR3842. According to NOAA and NASA models, the first will strike Earth on Oct 4th and the second (more potent) will strike on Oct. 6th. The dual impacts could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid-latitudes, especially on Oct. 6th.
https://spaceweather.com/ Sunspot AR3842 exploded again on Oct. 3rd, producing the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the X9.1-category blast: Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over Africa and the South Atlantic. Ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of signal at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as a half an hour after 12:18 UTC.
The explosion also produced a halo CME. Now that a full set of images has arrived from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it's clear that the CME is potent. NOAA forecasts of a strong geomagnetic storm when it arrives on Oct. 6th are probably correct. https://spaceweather.com/ Fast-growing sunspot AR3842 erupted on Oct 1st (2220 UT), producing the second-strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. The X7.1-category blast caused a shortwave radio blackout over Hawaii and hurled a CME into space. A preliminary NASA model predicts it will hit Earth on Oct. 5th. Stay tuned for the geomagnetic storm forecast.
During the strong (G3) geomagnetic storm of Sept. 12th, Jeffery Dixon looked up from the Agawa Bay in Ontario, Canada, and saw a red band stretching across the sky. It was a sign that Earth's ring current had sprung a leak: "I'm not sure if it was aurora, STEVE or airglow," says Dixon.
Actually, none of the above. Dixon photographed an SAR arc. SAR arcs were discovered in 1956 at the beginning of the Space Age. At first, researchers didn’t know what they were and unwittingly gave them a misleading name: "Stable Auroral Red arcs." However, they are not auroras; the red glow comes from Earth's ring current system. Yes, Earth has rings. Unlike Saturn's rings, which are vast disks of glittering ice, Earth's rings are made of electricity--a donut-shaped circuit carrying millions of amps around our planet.During strong geomagnetic storms, thermal energy from the rings can leak onto the atmosphere below, imprinting a red glow among the auroras. On Sept. 12th, SAR arcs were seen from many locations including Pennsylvania, Germany, California and Colorado. Browse the gallery for more. https://spaceweather.com/ This picture may be the first of its kind. On June 27th, photographer Tom Warner of South Dakota caught a bunch of Green Ghosts in a geomagnetic storm: "This was a huge bucket list item for me," says Warner. "An MCS thunderstorm was moving through the area, so I set up my camera to photograph sprites. The auroras and the Green Ghosts were NOT expected!" Everyone knows what auroras are. Green Ghosts are still new to many observers. They're the green blobs on top of the red sprites. Experienced observers say they appear in as few as 0.2% of sprite photos. "Tom Warner's green ghost is very clear--and certainly an unusual sight combined with aurora!" says Oscar van der Velde, an upper atmospheric lightning researcher at the Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya. Green Ghosts were discovered in May 2019 by Hank Schyma, a Houston Texas-based storm chaser. Initially, researchers thought they might be a form of green airglow activated by sprites when they touched a layer of oxygen 80 to 90 km above Earth's surface. Indeed, Ghost is an acronym: "Green emissions from excited Oxygen in Sprite Tops." New research casts doubt on that explanation. A paper recently published in Nature Communications reports a Herculean effort to decode the color of Green Ghosts. About a month after Schyma discovered the phenomenon, a team of lightning scientists led by María Passas Varo of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía began chasing thunderstorms, hoping to catch a Green Ghost in the slit of their spectrograph. It wasn't easy. Green Ghosts appear unpredictably and often last for no more than a fraction of a second. Four years and 2000 spectra later, they managed to capture just one spectrum of a Green Ghost strong enough to study. The results surprised them. Green Ghosts, it seems, are made of metal. Spectrum of a Green Ghost over the Mediterranean in Sept. 2019. [full caption] [source] "We identified a mix of spectral lines, including mainly iron, nickel, oxygen and nitrogen, that when combined, produced a green-yellow glow," says van der Velde, a co-author of the study. "There were also traces of sodium and silicon."
This metal-rich stew is more like meteor debris than airglow. Iron atoms deposited by meteors burning up in Earth's atmosphere peak in abundance 85 km high--about right for the tops of the tallest sprites. Green Ghosts might thus be a type of "meteor fluorescence." Or not. These conclusions are based on just one spectrum, and Green Ghosts may be far more varied than that. Stay tuned for updates as the research continues. https://spaceweather.com/ The historic geomagnetic storm of May 10-11, 2024, produced auroras across Europe, Asia, Mexico, and all 50 US stetes--even Hawaii. Hundreds of millions of people saw the colored lights for the first time in their lives, with photographers catching shots they couldn't have previously imagined. For instance, here is Opuntia chlorotica surrounded by the red glow of a CME: Kyle Nulla Cognomen sends this picture from Las Vegas, Nevada. "What a gorgeous view of the desert sky illuminated by aurora," he says. "I could see the reds and greens with my naked eye!"
Our photo gallery is filled with unusual images like this one--auroras in strange places, illuminating cactii, palm trees, pyramids, and Carribean beaches. There's no way to pick a favorite. Or is there? Browse the gallery to explore the extraordinary global display. https://spaceweather.com/ NOAA forecasters say that the storm is really over now. There's no chance of additional G5 activity this week because all the big CMEs have already come and gone. However, relatively minor G1 or G2-class storms are possible on May 13th in response to a glancing blow from this off-target CME. This morning, May 13th, giant sunspot AR3664 issued a parting shot from the edge of the Earth strike zone. An M6-class flare at 0944 UT hurled an impressive CME into space: Unlike most of the sunspot's previous CMEs, this one is not going to hit Earth with bullseye precision. Instead, it is expected to deliver a glancing blow on May 15th or 16th. The impact could spark minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms.
https://spaceweather.com/ No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras!
Great sunspot AR3664 has hurled an astonishing five CMEs toward Earth. They're all in this frenetic 2-day coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO): The two bright objects are Jupiter (left) and Venus (right). The CMEs will miss those planets and hit Earth instead.
According to a NOAA forecast model, the first three CMEs could merge for form a "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake and gobble up slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do an good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field. The Cannibal CME is expected to arrive on May 11th. It alone could spark a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm. With two more CMEs following close behind, storm levels could become extreme (G4), sparking auroras at mid- to low-latitudes across Europe and the USA. https://spaceweather.com/ NOAA models confirm that a Cannibal CME will strike our planet on Dec. 1st. Cannibal CMEs form when a fast CME sweeps up a slower CME ahead of it. The combination contains intense, tangled magnetic fields that can do a good job sparking auroras when they reach Earth. If a Cannibal CME strikes Earth on Dec. 1st, as predicted, geomagnetic storm levels could reach category G3 (Strong). If so, here's what we can expect. The last G3-class storm on Nov. 5th sparked not only bright auroras, but also deep-red SAR arcs around the world. Greg Redfern photographed this example from the Shenandoah National Park in Virginia: "I didn't realize I had photographed an SAR arc until I processed my images the next day, stitching two of them together to reveal its shape," says Redfern. SAR arcs look like auroras, but they are not. They are the glow of heat energy leaking into the upper atmosphere from Earth's ring current system–a donut-shaped circuit carrying millions of amps around our planet. During the Nov. 5th geomagnetic storm, these red arcs were observed as far south as Texas and California. Auroras were observed as well -- "and they were INSANE," says Janne Maj Nagelsen, who watched the display from Stamnes, Vaksdal, Norway: "I have never seen such strong auroras," says Nagelsen. "Not to mention the colors. I mean look at the picture! They were totally, literally insane."
Auroras are caused by charged particles raining from space down upon Earth's atmosphere. Unlike SAR arcs, which are pure red, auroras can have a rich and stunning variety of colors. Both phenomena may be photographed on Dec. 1, 2023, when a Cannibal CME is expected to hit Earth. https://spaceweather.com/ When Vincent van Gogh painted "The Starry Night" in 1889, little did he know he was working at the forefront of 21st century astrophysics. A paper recently published in Nature Communications reveals that the same kind of waves pictured in the famous painting can cause geomagnetic storms on Earth. Above: Vincent van Gogh's 'Starry Night', which he painted in 1889 Physicists call them "Kelvin Helmholtz waves". They ripple into existence when streams of gas flow past each other at different velocities. Van Gogh saw them in high clouds outside the window of his asylum in Saint-Rémy, France. They also form in space where the solar wind flows around Earth's magnetic field. "We have found Kelvin-Helmholtz waves rippling down the flanks of Earth's magnetosphere", says Shiva Kavosi of Embry–Riddle Aeronautical University, lead author of the Nature paper. "NASA spacecraft are surfing the waves, and directly measuring their properties". This was first suspected in the 1950s by theoreticians who made mathematical models of solar wind hitting Earth's magnetic field. However, until recently it was just an idea; there was no proof the waves existed. When Kavosi's team looked at data collected by NASA's THEMIS and MMS spacecraft since 2007, they saw clear evidence of Kelvin Helmholtz instabilities. "The waves are huge" says Kavosi. "They are 2 to 6 Earth radii in wavelength and as much as 4 Earth radii in amplitude." This computer model shows van Gogh waves moving down the flank of Earth's magnetosphere. Credit: Shiva Kasovi. [full-sized animation] Imagine a wave taller than Earth curling over and breaking. That's exactly what happens. Kelvin-Helmholtz waves naturally break onto Earth's magnetic field, propelling energetic particles deep into the magnetosphere. This revs up Earth's radiation belts, triggering geomagnetic storms and auroras.
A key finding of Kavosi's paper is that the waves prefer equinoxes. They appear 3 times more frequently around the start of spring and fall than summer and winter. Researchers have long known that geomagnetic activity is highest around equinoxes. Kelvin-Helmholtz wave activity could be one reason why. Our planet's seasonal dependence of geomagnetic activity has always been a bit of a puzzle. After all, the sun doesn't know when it's autumn on Earth. One idea holds that, around the time of the equinoxes, Earth's magnetic field links to the sun's because of the tilt of Earth's magnetic poles. This is called the Russell-McPherron effect after the researchers who first described it in 1973. Kavosi's research shows that Kelvin-Helmholtz waves might be important, too. Northern autumn has just begun, which means Kelvin Helmholtz waves are rippling around our planet, stirring up "Starry Night" auroras. Happy autumn! www.spaceweather.com |
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